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EV TradingSports betting analysis · AFL / NRL / NBL

Published record

The AFL record

Totals and handicaps, with each position staked once at the same size. The whole record is below; the model write-up is not published yet.

Tips settled
400
Profit on turnover
+17.05%
Max drawdown
-19.8u
t-statistic
3.7

AFL positions are staked flat at 2u.

Turnover 800uP&L +136.4uStrike 61.75%W 247 · L 153 · P 0 · V 02024-03-08 → 2025-09-27Mean CLV +0.1% · beat close 47.5%

Published record

Cumulative P&L and drawdown

Cumulative P&L in date-advised order. AFL positions are staked flat at 2u.

Cumulative P&L, units
  • AFL +136.40u
0u+20u+40u+60u+80u+100u+120u+140uApr 24Jul 24Mar 25Jun 25Sep 25AFL +136.40u
Drawdown from peak, units
-20u-15u-10u-5u0uApr 24Jul 24Mar 25Jun 25Sep 25

Composition

P&L by month
0u +10u +20u +30u +40u Mar 24 May 24 Jul 24 Sep 24 Apr 25 Jun 25 Aug 25
P&L by market
0u +20u +40u +60u +80u +100u Margin +43.4u · 79 Total +93.0u · 321

3.7

t-statistic

The t-statistic compares mean P&L per bet with its variability. It assumes independent observations; bets on the same match can move together. This figure alone does not establish an edge.

Every position

Prices shown are those available from the named bookmaker when each tip was published. They move after publication and will not match current markets. Stakes and original leg counts are in the CSV. Closing prices are supplied ledger inputs, not an independently verified measure of skill.

Each tip with its price, closing price and settled result, newest first
Bet IDDateSportMatchMarketSideLineBookOddsCloseStake (u)LegsResultP&L
10132025-09-27AFLGeelong v BrisbaneTotalUnder171.5PlayUp1.901.9021Loss-2.00
9702025-09-19AFLGeelong v HawthornTotalUnder166.5PointsBet1.901.8821Loss-2.00
9552025-09-13AFLBrisbane v Gold CoastTotalUnder169.5PointsBet1.901.9121Win+1.80
9542025-09-12AFLAdelaide v HawthornTotalUnder165.5TAB1.901.8821Loss-2.00
9532025-09-06AFLFremantle v Gold CoastTotalUnder168.5PointsBet1.901.9021Win+1.80
9522025-09-06AFLGWS v HawthornTotalOver168.5Bet3651.891.8921Win+1.78
9512025-09-04AFLAdelaide v CollingwoodTotalUnder160.5PointsBet1.901.9021Win+1.80
9502025-08-27AFLGold Coast v EssendonTotalUnder170.5Sportsbet1.881.9121Loss-2.00
9492025-08-24AFLWestern Bulldogs v FremantleTotalUnder172.5Bet3651.891.9021Loss-2.00
9482025-08-24AFLGWS v St KildaTotalUnder173.5Bet3651.891.8921Loss-2.00
9472025-08-24AFLBrisbane v HawthornTotalUnder168.5TAB1.901.9121Win+1.80
9462025-08-23AFLNorth Melbourne v AdelaideTotalUnder177.5TAB1.901.8721Loss-2.00
9452025-08-23AFLRichmond v GeelongTotalUnder175.5PointsBet1.901.9021Win+1.80
9442025-08-23AFLRichmond v GeelongMarginHome+59.5Bet3651.911.9021Win+1.82
9432025-08-23AFLNorth Melbourne v AdelaideMarginHome+40.5Sportsbet1.911.9121Win+1.82
9422025-08-22AFLCollingwood v MelbourneTotalUnder164.5PointsBet1.901.8821Win+1.80
9412025-08-22AFLPort Adelaide v Gold CoastMarginHome+25.5Sportsbet1.901.9021Win+1.80
9402025-08-21AFLEssendon v CarltonTotalUnder167.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
9392025-08-17AFLWestern Bulldogs v West CoastTotalUnder178.5TAB1.901.8821Win+1.80
9382025-08-17AFLNorth Melbourne v RichmondTotalUnder166.5Sportsbet1.871.8921Loss-2.00
9372025-08-17AFLSydney v GeelongTotalOver169.5Sportsbet1.881.9021Win+1.76
9362025-08-17AFLSydney v GeelongMarginHome+18.5PointsBet1.901.9021Loss-2.00
9352025-08-17AFLNorth Melbourne v RichmondMarginAway+10.5betr1.901.8921Loss-2.00
9342025-08-16AFLCarlton v Port AdelaideMarginAway+12.5betr1.901.9021Loss-2.00
9332025-08-16AFLHawthorn v MelbourneTotalUnder164.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
9322025-08-16AFLGold Coast v GWSTotalUnder176.5TAB1.901.8921Loss-2.00
9312025-08-16AFLCarlton v Port AdelaideTotalUnder172.5TAB1.901.8821Loss-2.00
9302025-08-16AFLAdelaide v CollingwoodTotalUnder165.5PlayUp1.881.8921Win+1.76
9292025-08-15AFLEssendon v St KildaTotalUnder171.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
9282025-08-15AFLFremantle v BrisbaneTotalUnder167.5TAB1.901.8821Win+1.80
9272025-08-15AFLEssendon v St KildaMarginHome+24.5PlayUp1.901.9021Win+1.80
9262025-08-10AFLWest Coast v AdelaideTotalUnder173.5Bet3651.891.9021Win+1.78
9252025-08-10AFLGWS v North MelbourneTotalUnder165.5Bet3651.891.8921Loss-2.00
9242025-08-10AFLMelbourne v Western BulldogsTotalUnder176.5Bet3651.891.8821Loss-2.00
9232025-08-10AFLWest Coast v AdelaideMarginHome+58.5betr1.901.9021Win+1.80
9222025-08-10AFLMelbourne v Western BulldogsMarginHome+23.5PlayUp1.901.9221Win+1.80
9212025-08-09AFLCarlton v Gold CoastTotalUnder172.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
9202025-08-09AFLRichmond v St KildaTotalUnder161.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
9192025-08-09AFLBrisbane v SydneyMarginAway+28.5betr1.901.8921Win+1.80
9182025-08-09AFLPort Adelaide v FremantleMarginHome+24.5betr1.901.9021Win+1.80
9172025-08-08AFLGeelong v EssendonTotalUnder181.5TABtouch1.871.9021Win+1.74
9162025-08-08AFLGeelong v EssendonMarginAway+65.5PlayUp1.901.9121Win+1.80
9152025-08-07AFLHawthorn v CollingwoodTotalUnder161.5TABtouch1.881.9021Win+1.76
9142025-08-03AFLGeelong v Port AdelaideMarginAway+46.5betr1.901.9021Loss-2.00
9132025-08-03AFLFremantle v CarltonTotalUnder158.5TAB1.901.9021Loss-2.00
9122025-08-03AFLGeelong v Port AdelaideTotalUnder176.5TABtouch1.881.8921Loss-2.00
9112025-08-03AFLSt Kilda v North MelbourneTotalUnder175.5TABtouch1.881.8821Win+1.76
9102025-08-02AFLCollingwood v BrisbaneTotalUnder166.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
9092025-08-02AFLSydney v EssendonTotalOver152.5TAB1.901.8821Loss-2.00
9082025-08-02AFLGold Coast v RichmondTotalUnder167.5Sportsbet1.881.8821Win+1.76
9072025-08-02AFLMelbourne v West CoastTotalUnder171.5TAB1.901.8821Loss-2.00
9062025-08-01AFLAdelaide v HawthornTotalUnder165.5TAB1.901.9021Loss-2.00
9052025-07-31AFLWestern Bulldogs v GWSTotalUnder174.5TAB1.901.8821Loss-2.00
9042025-07-27AFLSt Kilda v MelbourneTotalUnder170.5Sportsbet1.881.8521Loss-2.00
9032025-07-27AFLRichmond v CollingwoodTotalUnder157.5Sportsbet1.891.9021Win+1.78
9022025-07-26AFLNorth Melbourne v GeelongTotalUnder177.5TAB1.901.9221Loss-2.00
9012025-07-26AFLGold Coast v BrisbaneTotalOver154.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
9002025-07-26AFLAdelaide v Port AdelaideTotalOver150.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
8992025-07-25AFLGWS v SydneyTotalUnder167.5Sportsbet1.911.9021Win+1.82
8982025-07-25AFLEssendon v Western BulldogsMarginHome+55.5betr1.901.8921Loss-2.00
8972025-07-24AFLHawthorn v CarltonTotalUnder161.5TABtouch1.881.8921Win+1.76
8962025-07-20AFLAdelaide v Gold CoastTotalUnder173.5Bet3651.891.8921Win+1.78
8952025-07-20AFLCollingwood v FremantleTotalUnder163.5Sportsbet1.901.8921Win+1.80
8942025-07-20AFLGeelong v St KildaTotalUnder172.5Sportsbet1.901.8821Loss-2.00
8932025-07-19AFLCarlton v MelbourneTotalUnder167.5PlayUp1.881.9521Win+1.76
8922025-07-19AFLWest Coast v RichmondTotalUnder162.5Sportsbet1.861.9021Win+1.72
8912025-07-19AFLSydney v North MelbourneTotalUnder172.5TAB1.901.8821Win+1.80
8902025-07-19AFLCarlton v MelbourneMarginHome+7.5BetRight1.901.9021Win+1.80
8892025-07-19AFLSydney v North MelbourneMarginAway+40.5betr1.901.9121Win+1.80
8882025-07-18AFLBrisbane v Western BulldogsTotalUnder174.5Bet3651.891.9021Win+1.78
8872025-07-17AFLEssendon v GWSMarginHome+32.5BetRight1.981.8921Loss-2.00
8862025-07-13AFLMelbourne v North MelbourneMarginAway+27.5PointsBet1.901.9021Loss-2.00
8852025-07-13AFLSt Kilda v SydneyTotalUnder166.5TAB1.901.9121Loss-2.00
8842025-07-13AFLPort Adelaide v West CoastTotalUnder168.5Bet3651.891.9021Win+1.78
8832025-07-13AFLMelbourne v North MelbourneTotalOver167.5Sportsbet1.871.9121Win+1.74
8822025-07-12AFLGWS v GeelongTotalOver171.5TAB1.901.9121Win+1.80
8812025-07-12AFLRichmond v EssendonTotalUnder164.5TAB1.901.8321Win+1.80
8802025-07-12AFLWestern Bulldogs v AdelaideTotalUnder179.5Bet3651.891.9121Loss-2.00
8792025-07-11AFLGold Coast v CollingwoodTotalUnder172.5TAB1.901.8821Win+1.80
8782025-07-10AFLCarlton v BrisbaneTotalUnder169.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
8772025-07-06AFLAdelaide v MelbourneTotalUnder172.5Sportsbet1.861.8921Win+1.72
8762025-07-06AFLSydney v FremantleTotalOver156.5Sportsbet1.871.9021Win+1.74
8752025-07-05AFLBrisbane v Port AdelaideTotalUnder170.5TAB1.901.9121Loss-2.00
8742025-07-05AFLGeelong v RichmondTotalUnder176.5TAB1.901.9021Win+1.80
8732025-07-05AFLSt Kilda v HawthornTotalUnder167.5Sportsbet1.891.9121Loss-2.00
8722025-07-05AFLSt Kilda v HawthornMarginHome+18.5Bet3651.911.9021Loss-2.00
8712025-07-04AFLCarlton v CollingwoodMarginHome+24.5Bet3651.911.8921Loss-2.00
8702025-07-03AFLNorth Melbourne v Western BulldogsTotalUnder180.5TAB1.901.9121Loss-2.00
8692025-06-29AFLRichmond v AdelaideMarginHome+34.5betr1.901.9221Loss-2.00
8682025-06-29AFLRichmond v AdelaideTotalUnder174.5Bet3651.891.8821Loss-2.00
8672025-06-28AFLCollingwood v West CoastTotalUnder174.5TABtouch1.881.8921Win+1.76
8662025-06-28AFLGold Coast v MelbourneTotalUnder172.5TAB1.901.9021Loss-2.00
8652025-06-28AFLHawthorn v North MelbourneTotalUnder157.5TAB1.901.8921Loss-2.00
8642025-06-26AFLPort Adelaide v CarltonTotalUnder164.5TAB1.901.9021Loss-2.00
8632025-06-22AFLWestern Bulldogs v RichmondTotalUnder181.5TAB1.901.8821Loss-2.00
8622025-06-22AFLGWS v Gold CoastTotalOver161.5Sportsbet1.881.9021Win+1.76
8612025-06-21AFLCollingwood v St KildaMarginHome-29.5PointsBet1.871.8921Win+1.74
8602025-06-21AFLPort Adelaide v SydneyTotalUnder171.5TABtouch1.881.9021Win+1.76
8592025-06-21AFLCollingwood v St KildaTotalUnder170.5Sportsbet1.881.8921Loss-2.00
8582025-06-21AFLCarlton v North MelbourneTotalUnder166.5TAB1.901.9021Win+1.80
8572025-06-20AFLGeelong v BrisbaneTotalUnder171.5TAB1.901.9021Win+1.80
8562025-06-15AFLPort Adelaide v MelbourneTotalUnder155.5TAB1.901.8921Loss-2.00
8552025-06-14AFLBrisbane v GWSTotalUnder168.5TAB1.901.8921Loss-2.00
8542025-06-14AFLEssendon v GeelongMarginHome+28.5betr1.901.9221Loss-2.00
8532025-06-14AFLNorth Melbourne v FremantleTotalUnder167.5TAB1.901.9021Win+1.80
8522025-06-14AFLEssendon v GeelongTotalUnder166.5TAB1.901.9121Loss-2.00
8512025-06-13AFLHawthorn v AdelaideTotalOver152.5Bet3651.891.8921Loss-2.00
8502025-06-09AFLMelbourne v CollingwoodTotalUnder165.5TAB1.901.8821Win+1.80
8492025-06-08AFLCarlton v EssendonTotalUnder163.5PlayUp1.881.8921Win+1.76
8482025-06-07AFLGWS v Port AdelaideTotalUnder164.5Bet3651.891.8921Win+1.78
8472025-06-07AFLGeelong v Gold CoastTotalUnder173.5TAB1.901.9121Win+1.80
8462025-06-06AFLAdelaide v BrisbaneTotalUnder168.5TABtouch1.881.9021Win+1.76
8452025-06-05AFLWestern Bulldogs v HawthornTotalUnder174.5TAB1.901.9021Win+1.80
8442025-06-01AFLWest Coast v GeelongTotalUnder171.5TAB1.901.9121Loss-2.00
8432025-06-01AFLMelbourne v St KildaTotalUnder169.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
8422025-05-31AFLGWS v RichmondTotalUnder173.5TABtouch1.881.8821Win+1.76
8412025-05-31AFLGold Coast v FremantleTotalUnder184.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
8402025-05-31AFLSydney v AdelaideTotalUnder176.5PointsBet1.901.8821Win+1.80
8392025-05-30AFLCollingwood v HawthornTotalUnder170.5TAB1.901.8821Win+1.80
8382025-05-29AFLBrisbane v EssendonMarginAway+36.5betr1.901.9021Win+1.80
8372025-05-25AFLMelbourne v SydneyTotalUnder167.5PointsBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
8362025-05-25AFLSt Kilda v Gold CoastTotalUnder170.5Dabble1.981.9521Win+1.96
8352025-05-25AFLAdelaide v West CoastTotalOver160.5Dabble1.781.7821Win+1.56
8342025-05-24AFLFremantle v Port AdelaideTotalUnder167.5Bet3651.891.8921Win+1.78
8332025-05-24AFLNorth Melbourne v CollingwoodTotalUnder175.5TAB1.901.7821Win+1.80
8322025-05-24AFLHawthorn v BrisbaneTotalUnder172.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
8312025-05-23AFLEssendon v RichmondTotalUnder166.5TAB1.901.9021Win+1.80
8302025-05-22AFLGeelong v Western BulldogsTotalUnder178.5TAB1.901.9021Loss-2.00
8292025-05-18AFLBrisbane v MelbourneTotalUnder179.5TAB1.901.8821Loss-2.00
8282025-05-18AFLRichmond v North MelbourneTotalUnder173.5TAB1.901.9021Win+1.80
8272025-05-18AFLWest Coast v St KildaTotalUnder170.5TAB1.901.8521Loss-2.00
8262025-05-17AFLPort Adelaide v GeelongTotalUnder179.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
8252025-05-17AFLGWS v FremantleTotalUnder174.5TAB1.901.8821Win+1.80
8242025-05-17AFLWestern Bulldogs v EssendonTotalUnder176.5TAB1.901.9021Win+1.80
8232025-05-17AFLCollingwood v AdelaideTotalUnder173.5Bet3651.891.9121Win+1.78
8222025-05-16AFLSydney v CarltonTotalOver163.5TAB1.901.8921Loss-2.00
8212025-05-15AFLGold Coast v HawthornMarginAway+2.5PlayUp1.901.8921Loss-2.00
8202025-05-15AFLGold Coast v HawthornTotalUnder187.5TAB1.901.8921Loss-2.00
8192025-05-11AFLNorth Melbourne v BrisbaneTotalUnder176.5PointsBet1.901.8821Win+1.80
8182025-05-11AFLRichmond v West CoastTotalUnder172.5Sportsbet1.881.8921Win+1.76
8172025-05-11AFLGeelong v GWSTotalUnder174.5PointsBet1.901.9121Loss-2.00
8162025-05-10AFLEssendon v SydneyTotalUnder172.5PointsBet1.901.9021Win+1.80
8152025-05-10AFLMelbourne v HawthornTotalUnder170.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
8142025-05-10AFLPort Adelaide v AdelaideTotalUnder176.5PointsBet1.901.9121Win+1.80
8132025-05-10AFLGold Coast v Western BulldogsMarginAway+2.5BetRight1.901.8921Loss-2.00
8122025-05-10AFLPort Adelaide v AdelaideMarginHome+8.5PlayUp1.901.9521Win+1.80
8112025-05-09AFLSt Kilda v CarltonTotalUnder167.5PointsBet1.901.9121Win+1.80
8102025-05-08AFLFremantle v CollingwoodTotalOver160.5TAB1.901.8821Win+1.80
8092025-05-04AFLHawthorn v RichmondTotalUnder178.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
8082025-05-04AFLBrisbane v Gold CoastTotalUnder175.5Bet3651.891.8921Win+1.78
8072025-05-03AFLCollingwood v GeelongTotalUnder172.5PointsBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
8062025-05-03AFLAdelaide v CarltonTotalUnder175.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
8052025-05-03AFLWest Coast v MelbourneTotalOver159.5PointsBet1.901.8821Win+1.80
8042025-05-02AFLSt Kilda v FremantleTotalUnder175.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
8032025-05-01AFLEssendon v North MelbourneTotalUnder184.5Bet3651.891.9121Win+1.78
8022025-04-27AFLHawthorn v West CoastTotalUnder180.5PointsBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
8012025-04-26AFLPort Adelaide v North MelbourneTotalUnder184.5Bet3651.891.8921Loss-2.00
8002025-04-26AFLSt Kilda v BrisbaneTotalUnder183.5PointsBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
7992025-04-25AFLFremantle v AdelaideTotalUnder178.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
7982025-04-21AFLGeelong v HawthornTotalUnder175.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
7972025-04-20AFLWestern Bulldogs v St KildaTotalUnder181.5Bet3651.891.9021Loss-2.00
7962025-04-20AFLSydney v Port AdelaideTotalUnder173.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
7952025-04-19AFLMelbourne v FremantleTotalUnder169.5TAB1.901.9221Loss-2.00
7942025-04-19AFLAdelaide v GWSTotalUnder186.5PointsBet1.901.9121Win+1.80
7932025-04-18AFLWest Coast v EssendonMarginHome+26.5BetRight1.901.9221Win+1.80
7922025-04-18AFLNorth Melbourne v CarltonTotalUnder180.5TAB1.901.8821Loss-2.00
7912025-04-13AFLPort Adelaide v HawthornTotalUnder174.5PointsBet1.901.9021Loss-2.00
7902025-04-13AFLSt Kilda v GWSTotalOver163.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
7892025-04-13AFLRichmond v FremantleTotalOver173.5PointsBet1.901.9021Loss-2.00
7882025-04-12AFLWestern Bulldogs v BrisbaneMarginHome+10.5PointsBet1.901.9021Loss-2.00
7872025-04-12AFLNorth Melbourne v Gold CoastTotalUnder180.5PointsBet1.901.9121Loss-2.00
7862025-04-12AFLCarlton v West CoastTotalUnder176.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
7852025-04-12AFLWestern Bulldogs v BrisbaneTotalOver168.5TAB1.901.9021Win+1.80
7842025-04-11AFLCollingwood v SydneyTotalUnder172.5PointsBet1.901.8821Loss-2.00
7832025-04-10AFLAdelaide v GeelongMarginAway+8.5PointsBet1.901.9021Win+1.80
7822025-04-06AFLFremantle v Western BulldogsMarginAway+7.5betr1.901.8921Loss-2.00
7812025-04-06AFLGWS v West CoastTotalUnder177.5TAB1.901.9021Loss-2.00
7802025-04-06AFLFremantle v Western BulldogsTotalOver165.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
7792025-04-05AFLRichmond v BrisbaneTotalUnder177.5Bet3651.891.9021Loss-2.00
7782025-04-05AFLGold Coast v AdelaideMarginAway+4.5BetRight1.901.9121Win+1.80
7772025-04-05AFLNorth Melbourne v SydneyTotalUnder175.5Bet3651.891.9021Win+1.78
7762025-04-05AFLGold Coast v AdelaideTotalOver175.5PointsBet1.901.9121Win+1.80
7752025-04-04AFLGeelong v MelbourneTotalUnder175.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
7742025-03-30AFLAdelaide v North MelbourneTotalUnder188.5Bet3651.891.9521Loss-2.00
7732025-03-30AFLWest Coast v FremantleMarginHome+24.5Bet3651.911.9021Loss-2.00
7722025-03-29AFLHawthorn v GWSTotalUnder166.5Bet3651.891.9121Win+1.78
7712025-03-29AFLBrisbane v GeelongTotalOver153.5Bet3651.891.9121Loss-2.00
7702025-03-29AFLBrisbane v GeelongMarginAway+13.5Bet3651.911.9021Win+1.82
7692025-03-28AFLCarlton v Western BulldogsTotalOver170.5TAB1.901.9021Loss-2.00
7682025-03-23AFLNorth Melbourne v MelbourneTotalUnder172.5TAB1.901.9021Loss-2.00
7672025-03-23AFLFremantle v SydneyTotalOver165.5TAB1.901.9021Loss-2.00
7662025-03-23AFLBrisbane v West CoastTotalUnder176.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
7652025-03-22AFLSt Kilda v GeelongMarginHome+22.5TopSport1.871.8821Win+1.74
7642025-03-22AFLPort Adelaide v RichmondTotalUnder174.5TABtouch1.881.9521Loss-2.00
7632025-03-22AFLSt Kilda v GeelongTotalUnder170.5PlayUp1.882.0021Loss-2.00
7622025-03-21AFLWestern Bulldogs v CollingwoodMarginHome+7.5PlayUp1.901.9021Win+1.80
7612025-03-20AFLCarlton v HawthornTotalUnder169.5TABtouch1.881.9521Win+1.76
7602025-03-16AFLAdelaide v St KildaTotalOver158.5PlayUp1.881.9021Win+1.76
7592025-03-16AFLWest Coast v Gold CoastTotalOver163.5Sportsbet1.881.8021Win+1.76
7582025-03-16AFLMelbourne v GWSTotalUnder165.5PointsBet1.901.9521Win+1.80
7572025-03-15AFLGeelong v FremantleTotalUnder172.5PointsBet1.901.8821Loss-2.00
7562025-03-15AFLCollingwood v Port AdelaideTotalOver163.5PlayUp1.881.8021Win+1.76
7552025-03-15AFLSydney v BrisbaneTotalUnder178.5PointsBet1.901.9521Win+1.80
7542025-03-15AFLWestern Bulldogs v North MelbourneTotalUnder176.5PointsBet1.902.0021Loss-2.00
7532025-03-13AFLRichmond v CarltonTotalUnder178.5TAB1.901.9721Win+1.80
7522025-03-09AFLGWS v CollingwoodTotalOver167.5TopSport1.871.8021Loss-2.00
7512025-03-07AFLSydney v HawthornTotalUnder174.5Sportsbet1.881.9021Win+1.76
1932024-09-20AFLSydney v Port AdelaideTotalOver168.5PointsBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
1922024-09-14AFLGWS v BrisbaneTotalUnder168.5PlayUp1.881.9021Loss-2.00
1912024-09-13AFLPort Adelaide v HawthornTotalOver165.5PointsBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
1902024-09-07AFLSydney v GWSTotalUnder172.5PointsBet1.901.8821Win+1.80
1892024-09-07AFLBrisbane v CarltonTotalOver165.5PointsBet1.901.8821Win+1.80
1882024-08-25AFLFremantle v Port AdelaideTotalOver159.5TAB1.901.8921Loss-2.00
1872024-08-25AFLCarlton v St KildaTotalUnder167.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
1862024-08-24AFLHawthorn v North MelbourneTotalUnder176.5PlayUp1.881.8821Loss-2.00
1852024-08-24AFLRichmond v Gold CoastTotalUnder175.5TAB1.901.9021Win+1.80
1842024-08-24AFLGeelong v West CoastTotalUnder176.5PointsBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
1832024-08-24AFLSydney v AdelaideTotalUnder174.5PointsBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
1822024-08-23AFLMelbourne v CollingwoodTotalUnder170.5PlayUp1.881.9021Win+1.76
1812024-08-23AFLMelbourne v CollingwoodMarginHome+11.5PointsBet1.901.9021Loss-2.00
1802024-08-18AFLWest Coast v CarltonTotalUnder168.5Sportsbet1.881.8921Win+1.76
1792024-08-18AFLWest Coast v CarltonMarginAway-7.5betr1.901.0021Win+1.80
1782024-08-18AFLHawthorn v RichmondTotalOver167.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
1772024-08-18AFLWestern Bulldogs v North MelbourneTotalUnder177.5PointsBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
1762024-08-17AFLGold Coast v MelbourneTotalUnder167.5PointsBet1.901.8821Loss-2.00
1752024-08-17AFLSt Kilda v GeelongTotalUnder164.5Unibet1.891.8921Loss-2.00
1742024-08-17AFLGold Coast v MelbourneMarginAway+12.5TAB1.901.9021Win+1.80
1732024-08-17AFLGWS v FremantleTotalOver162.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
1722024-08-17AFLPort Adelaide v AdelaideTotalUnder170.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
1712024-08-17AFLCollingwood v BrisbaneTotalUnder167.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
1702024-08-16AFLEssendon v SydneyTotalUnder174.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
1692024-08-16AFLEssendon v SydneyMarginAway-10.5PlayUp1.901.0021Win+1.80
1682024-08-11AFLAdelaide v Western BulldogsMarginHome+16.5BetRight1.901.9121Win+1.80
1672024-08-11AFLRichmond v St KildaTotalUnder163.5Sportsbet1.881.9021Win+1.76
1662024-08-11AFLCarlton v HawthornTotalUnder175.5TAB1.901.9021Win+1.80
1652024-08-10AFLMelbourne v Port AdelaideMarginHome+15.5BetRight1.901.8921Win+1.80
1642024-08-10AFLBrisbane v GWSTotalUnder178.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
1632024-08-10AFLEssendon v Gold CoastTotalUnder172.5PointsBet1.901.9021Loss-2.00
1622024-08-10AFLBrisbane v GWSMarginAway+23.5PlayUp1.901.8921Win+1.80
1612024-08-10AFLMelbourne v Port AdelaideTotalUnder168.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
1602024-08-10AFLNorth Melbourne v West CoastTotalUnder175.5PointsBet1.901.8821Loss-2.00
1592024-08-04AFLGWS v HawthornTotalUnder169.5Sportsbet1.881.9021Win+1.76
1582024-08-04AFLEssendon v FremantleTotalUnder168.5Sportsbet1.881.8921Loss-2.00
1572024-08-04AFLSt Kilda v BrisbaneTotalOver166.5Sportsbet1.881.8821Loss-2.00
1562024-08-03AFLGeelong v AdelaideTotalUnder172.5TAB1.901.9021Loss-2.00
1552024-08-03AFLCollingwood v CarltonMarginHome+12.5BlueBet1.901.9021Win+1.80
1542024-08-03AFLNorth Melbourne v RichmondTotalUnder176.5TAB1.901.8821Win+1.80
1532024-08-02AFLWest Coast v Gold CoastTotalUnder168.5TAB1.901.8921Loss-2.00
1522024-08-02AFLWestern Bulldogs v MelbourneTotalUnder172.5PointsBet1.901.9221Win+1.80
1512024-07-28AFLAdelaide v HawthornTotalOver162.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
1502024-07-28AFLSydney v Western BulldogsTotalUnder176.5TopSport1.911.8821Win+1.82
1492024-07-27AFLMelbourne v GWSMarginAway+1.5TopSport1.911.9021Win+1.82
1482024-07-27AFLNorth Melbourne v GeelongMarginAway-24.5TopSport1.871.9221Win+1.74
1472024-07-27AFLFremantle v West CoastTotalOver160.5TAB1.901.8821Win+1.80
1462024-07-27AFLSt Kilda v EssendonTotalUnder160.5Unibet1.891.9021Loss-2.00
1452024-07-26AFLCarlton v Port AdelaideTotalUnder182.5TopSport1.911.8921Win+1.82
1442024-07-21AFLBrisbane v SydneyTotalOver173.5Unibet1.891.8821Loss-2.00
1432024-07-21AFLCarlton v North MelbourneTotalUnder186.5TAB1.901.8921Loss-2.00
1422024-07-21AFLFremantle v MelbourneTotalOver153.5TopSport1.911.8921Win+1.82
1412024-07-20AFLGeelong v Western BulldogsMarginAway+19.5PointsBet1.901.9221Win+1.80
1402024-07-20AFLHawthorn v CollingwoodTotalUnder168.5TAB1.901.9021Loss-2.00
1392024-07-20AFLGeelong v Western BulldogsTotalUnder170.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
1382024-07-20AFLSt Kilda v West CoastTotalUnder164.5TAB1.901.8821Win+1.80
1372024-07-19AFLEssendon v AdelaideTotalUnder169.5TAB1.901.8921Loss-2.00
1362024-07-14AFLGold Coast v Port AdelaideMarginAway+8.5PointsBet1.901.9021Loss-2.00
1352024-07-14AFLWest Coast v BrisbaneTotalOver167.5TAB1.901.9521Win+1.80
1342024-07-14AFLGold Coast v Port AdelaideTotalOver165.5Unibet1.891.9021Win+1.78
1332024-07-13AFLMelbourne v EssendonMarginHome+7.5PlayUp1.901.8621Win+1.80
1322024-07-13AFLSydney v North MelbourneMarginHome-45.5Unibet1.891.9021Win+1.78
1312024-07-13AFLMelbourne v EssendonTotalUnder165.5Unibet1.891.8521Win+1.78
1302024-07-13AFLSydney v North MelbourneTotalUnder174.5TopSport1.911.8821Loss-2.00
1292024-07-07AFLMelbourne v West CoastTotalUnder166.5TAB1.901.8921Loss-2.00
1282024-07-07AFLBrisbane v AdelaideTotalOver168.5TopSport1.871.8921Win+1.74
1272024-07-07AFLSt Kilda v SydneyTotalUnder168.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
1262024-07-06AFLGWS v CarltonTotalOver163.5PlayUp1.881.9021Win+1.76
1252024-07-06AFLFremantle v RichmondTotalOver165.5PointsBet1.902.0021Loss-2.00
1242024-07-06AFLGeelong v HawthornTotalUnder172.5PlayUp1.881.8821Win+1.76
1232024-07-06AFLPort Adelaide v Western BulldogsTotalOver166.5PointsBet1.901.8821Loss-2.00
1222024-07-05AFLCollingwood v EssendonTotalUnder167.5PointsBet1.901.8821Loss-2.00
1212024-06-30AFLWest Coast v HawthornMarginAway-14.5BlueBet1.901.9021Win+1.80
1202024-06-30AFLRichmond v CarltonTotalUnder170.5TopSport1.871.9021Loss-2.00
1192024-06-30AFLSt Kilda v Port AdelaideTotalUnder161.5TopSport1.911.8921Win+1.82
1182024-06-29AFLGeelong v EssendonTotalUnder170.5TAB1.901.8821Win+1.80
1172024-06-29AFLGold Coast v CollingwoodTotalUnder166.5Unibet1.891.8921Loss-2.00
1162024-06-29AFLGeelong v EssendonMarginHome+5.5PointsBet1.901.9221Win+1.80
1152024-06-28AFLBrisbane v MelbourneMarginAway+28.5BlueBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
1142024-06-28AFLBrisbane v MelbourneTotalUnder169.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
1132024-06-23AFLEssendon v West CoastMarginAway+34.5PointsBet1.901.9221Win+1.80
1122024-06-23AFLFremantle v Gold CoastTotalOver157.5TopSport1.871.8921Loss-2.00
1112024-06-23AFLEssendon v West CoastTotalUnder167.5PointsBet1.901.8821Loss-2.00
1102024-06-22AFLMelbourne v North MelbourneTotalUnder171.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
1092024-06-22AFLGWS v SydneyTotalOver167.5TAB1.901.9521Win+1.80
1082024-06-22AFLMelbourne v North MelbourneMarginHome-29.5PointsBet1.901.9221Loss-2.00
1072024-06-21AFLCarlton v GeelongTotalUnder173.5PointsBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
1062024-06-16AFLNorth Melbourne v CollingwoodTotalOver174.5TopSport1.911.8821Win+1.82
1052024-06-16AFLGWS v Port AdelaideTotalOver169.5TAB1.901.8921Loss-2.00
1042024-06-16AFLNorth Melbourne v CollingwoodMarginHome+39.5PlayUp1.901.9021Win+1.80
1032024-06-15AFLRichmond v HawthornTotalUnder169.5PointsBet1.901.8821Win+1.80
1022024-06-15AFLWestern Bulldogs v FremantleTotalUnder167.5TAB1.901.8821Loss-2.00
1012024-06-15AFLAdelaide v SydneyTotalOver164.5TAB1.901.9021Win+1.80
1002024-06-14AFLBrisbane v St KildaTotalUnder165.5TAB1.901.8821Loss-2.00
992024-06-10AFLCollingwood v MelbourneTotalUnder167.5TAB1.901.9121Win+1.80
982024-06-09AFLEssendon v CarltonTotalUnder171.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
972024-06-09AFLSydney v GeelongTotalUnder174.5TAB1.901.8821Loss-2.00
962024-06-08AFLHawthorn v GWSTotalUnder161.5TopSport1.901.8921Loss-2.00
952024-06-08AFLSt Kilda v Gold CoastTotalUnder163.5TopSport1.901.8921Win+1.80
942024-06-07AFLWestern Bulldogs v BrisbaneTotalUnder171.5PointsBet1.901.8821Loss-2.00
932024-06-06AFLAdelaide v RichmondMarginAway+40.5Sportsbet1.901.9021Win+1.80
922024-06-02AFLGold Coast v EssendonTotalUnder168.5PointsBet1.901.9021Loss-2.00
912024-06-02AFLMelbourne v FremantleTotalOver150.5TAB1.901.8521Win+1.80
902024-06-01AFLGeelong v RichmondMarginAway+47.5BlueBet1.901.9021Win+1.80
892024-06-01AFLHawthorn v AdelaideTotalUnder167.5Unibet1.891.8821Loss-2.00
882024-06-01AFLHawthorn v AdelaideMarginAway-3.5PointsBet1.901.9221Loss-2.00
872024-05-31AFLCollingwood v Western BulldogsTotalUnder170.5TAB1.901.8521Loss-2.00
862024-05-31AFLCollingwood v Western BulldogsMarginAway+9.5TopSport1.871.9021Win+1.74
852024-05-26AFLMelbourne v St KildaTotalOver153.5TopSport1.911.9021Win+1.82
842024-05-26AFLHawthorn v BrisbaneTotalUnder166.5Unibet1.891.9021Loss-2.00
832024-05-25AFLRichmond v EssendonMarginHome+41.5PlayUp1.901.9021Win+1.80
822024-05-25AFLCarlton v Gold CoastTotalUnder176.5PointsBet1.901.9021Win+1.80
812024-05-25AFLGeelong v GWSMarginAway+9.5BlueBet1.901.9221Win+1.80
802024-05-25AFLNorth Melbourne v Port AdelaideTotalOver172.5PointsBet1.901.9521Loss-2.00
792024-05-25AFLGeelong v GWSTotalUnder181.5TAB1.901.8821Win+1.80
782024-05-24AFLFremantle v CollingwoodTotalOver153.5Unibet1.891.8821Loss-2.00
772024-05-23AFLWestern Bulldogs v SydneyTotalUnder169.5TAB1.901.9021Loss-2.00
762024-05-19AFLEssendon v North MelbourneTotalUnder178.5TopSport1.871.8921Win+1.74
752024-05-19AFLPort Adelaide v HawthornTotalUnder170.5TopSport1.871.8921Win+1.74
742024-05-18AFLCollingwood v AdelaideMarginAway+22.5PlayUp1.901.8921Win+1.80
732024-05-18AFLGWS v Western BulldogsTotalUnder181.5TAB1.901.8821Win+1.80
722024-05-12AFLCollingwood v West CoastTotalUnder173.5PointsBet1.901.9021Win+1.80
712024-05-12AFLAdelaide v BrisbaneTotalOver166.5TAB1.901.8521Win+1.80
702024-05-11AFLEssendon v GWSMarginAway-7.5PointsBet1.901.9221Loss-2.00
692024-05-11AFLRichmond v Western BulldogsTotalOver165.5TAB1.901.9021Win+1.80
682024-05-11AFLGold Coast v North MelbourneTotalOver169.5Unibet1.891.8921Win+1.78
672024-05-11AFLEssendon v GWSTotalUnder178.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
662024-05-10AFLGeelong v Port AdelaideTotalUnder174.5PointsBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
652024-05-10AFLGeelong v Port AdelaideMarginAway+22.5PlayUp1.901.8921Win+1.80
642024-05-09AFLCarlton v MelbourneTotalUnder171.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
632024-05-05AFLWestern Bulldogs v HawthornTotalUnder172.5Unibet1.891.8921Loss-2.00
622024-05-04AFLMelbourne v GeelongTotalUnder165.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
612024-05-04AFLSydney v GWSTotalOver145.5Unibet1.931.9021Win+1.86
602024-05-04AFLSt Kilda v North MelbourneTotalUnder175.5TAB1.901.9021Win+1.80
592024-05-04AFLMelbourne v GeelongMarginHome+2.5BlueBet1.951.8921Win+1.90
582024-05-04AFLSydney v GWSMarginHome+16.5PointsBet1.901.9021Win+1.80
572024-05-03AFLCarlton v CollingwoodTotalUnder179.5PlayUp1.881.9021Win+1.76
562024-04-28AFLHawthorn v SydneyTotalUnder170.5PointsBet1.901.9021Win+1.80
552024-04-28AFLGold Coast v West CoastTotalOver166.5TopSport1.871.8821Win+1.74
542024-04-27AFLNorth Melbourne v AdelaideTotalOver175.5PlayUp1.881.8821Win+1.76
532024-04-27AFLFremantle v Western BulldogsTotalUnder165.5TAB1.901.8921Loss-2.00
522024-04-27AFLGeelong v CarltonTotalUnder170.5PlayUp1.881.8921Loss-2.00
512024-04-26AFLPort Adelaide v St KildaTotalUnder162.5PointsBet1.901.8821Win+1.80
502024-04-25AFLGWS v BrisbaneMarginHome+2.5TopSport1.911.9021Win+1.82
492024-04-25AFLEssendon v CollingwoodTotalUnder168.5PointsBet1.901.8821Loss-2.00
482024-04-25AFLGWS v BrisbaneTotalUnder172.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
472024-04-21AFLNorth Melbourne v HawthornTotalUnder176.5Sportsbet1.881.8921Loss-2.00
462024-04-20AFLWest Coast v FremantleTotalUnder168.5Sportsbet1.881.9021Loss-2.00
452024-04-20AFLCarlton v GWSTotalUnder175.5PointsBet1.901.8821Loss-2.00
442024-04-20AFLCollingwood v Port AdelaideTotalOver165.5TopSport1.911.9021Win+1.82
432024-04-19AFLAdelaide v EssendonTotalUnder175.5Unibet1.891.9021Win+1.78
422024-04-14AFLGeelong v North MelbourneMarginAway+56.5BlueBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
412024-04-14AFLGeelong v North MelbourneTotalUnder176.5PointsBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
402024-04-14AFLWest Coast v RichmondTotalOver172.5Unibet1.891.9021Win+1.78
392024-04-13AFLPort Adelaide v FremantleTotalUnder167.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
382024-04-13AFLGold Coast v HawthornTotalUnder163.5TopSport1.871.8921Loss-2.00
372024-04-13AFLGWS v St KildaTotalUnder165.5Unibet1.891.9021Win+1.78
362024-04-12AFLWestern Bulldogs v EssendonMarginHome-12.5PlayUp1.901.8521Loss-2.00
352024-04-11AFLMelbourne v BrisbaneTotalUnder166.5PointsBet1.901.8821Win+1.80
342024-04-07AFLCollingwood v HawthornTotalUnder168.5TAB1.901.8821Win+1.80
332024-04-07AFLRichmond v St KildaMarginHome+22.5Unibet1.891.8821Win+1.78
322024-04-06AFLFremantle v CarltonTotalUnder165.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
312024-04-06AFLFremantle v CarltonMarginHome+7.5Unibet1.891.8921Loss-2.00
302024-04-06AFLWest Coast v SydneyMarginHome+55.5BlueBet1.901.8821Win+1.80
292024-04-06AFLWest Coast v SydneyTotalOver177.5Unibet1.891.8921Win+1.78
282024-04-05AFLPort Adelaide v EssendonTotalUnder177.5Unibet1.891.9021Win+1.78
272024-04-05AFLBrisbane v North MelbourneTotalUnder180.5PointsBet1.901.8821Win+1.80
262024-04-04AFLAdelaide v MelbourneTotalUnder169.5TAB1.901.8921Win+1.80
252024-03-31AFLWestern Bulldogs v West CoastTotalUnder179.5TAB1.901.8821Win+1.80
242024-03-31AFLRichmond v SydneyMarginHome+23.5BlueBet1.901.9021Win+1.80
232024-03-30AFLPort Adelaide v MelbourneMarginAway+14.5BlueBet1.901.9021Win+1.80
222024-03-30AFLPort Adelaide v MelbourneTotalOver165.5PointsBet1.901.8821Win+1.80
212024-03-30AFLEssendon v St KildaTotalUnder165.5Unibet1.891.8821Win+1.78
202024-03-29AFLFremantle v AdelaideTotalOver167.5PointsBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
192024-03-29AFLNorth Melbourne v CarltonTotalOver172.5Unibet1.891.8921Win+1.78
182024-03-24AFLRichmond v Port AdelaideTotalOver170.5Sportsbet1.881.8921Win+1.76
172024-03-24AFLWest Coast v GWSTotalOver175.5PointsBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
162024-03-24AFLWestern Bulldogs v Gold CoastTotalOver159.5Unibet1.891.9021Win+1.78
152024-03-23AFLHawthorn v MelbourneTotalUnder169.5Unibet1.891.8921Win+1.78
142024-03-23AFLNorth Melbourne v FremantleTotalUnder170.5Unibet1.891.8821Loss-2.00
132024-03-23AFLSydney v EssendonTotalOver165.5TopSport1.871.8921Win+1.74
122024-03-23AFLHawthorn v MelbourneMarginHome+30.5PointsBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
112024-03-22AFLAdelaide v GeelongTotalUnder172.5PointsBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
102024-03-17AFLPort Adelaide v West CoastTotalUnder177.5PlayUp1.881.8921Loss-2.00
92024-03-16AFLGold Coast v AdelaideMarginAway+7.5TopSport1.931.9021Win+1.86
82024-03-16AFLEssendon v HawthornMarginAway+7.5PointsBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
72024-03-16AFLGeelong v St KildaTotalUnder162.5PointsBet1.901.9021Win+1.80
62024-03-16AFLEssendon v HawthornTotalUnder170.5PointsBet1.901.8921Loss-2.00
52024-03-16AFLGWS v North MelbourneTotalOver174.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
42024-03-15AFLCollingwood v SydneyTotalOver164.5PlayUp1.881.8921Win+1.76
32024-03-09AFLGWS v CollingwoodTotalOver164.5PointsBet1.901.8921Win+1.80
22024-03-08AFLBrisbane v CarltonTotalUnder171.5Unibet1.891.8821Win+1.78
12024-03-08AFLBrisbane v CarltonMarginAway+20.5PointsBet1.901.9221Win+1.80

Settlement rules and record context →

Summary

  1. AFL totals and handicaps from 2024-03-08 to 2025-09-27: 400 positions, each staked at 2 units.
  2. Selections were priced against our own line and taken when the market was far enough away from it.
  3. The model write-up is not published yet. Until it is, the table is the whole argument.
  4. Mean closing-line value from the supplied prices is 0.1%. Treat that comparison as a check on the record, not proof of an edge.

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